If you’re trying to make long-term investment decisions right now, you’re not alone in feeling stuck. The current moment—a volatile mix of political theater, trade wars, inflation anxiety, and tech-sector head fakes—has made the market an incredibly difficult place to operate.

And this morning’s headlines aren’t helping.

President Trump has once again escalated tensions—this time taking direct aim at the Federal Reserve. After Chair Jay Powell made it clear yesterday that the Fed isn’t planning to bail out battered markets anytime soon, stocks sold off sharply. Powell was blunt: tariffs are a serious risk to both growth and price stability, and the Fed is choosing to wait and watch.

Investors, of course, aren’t waiting. Markets are now pricing in four rate cuts this year, even as Powell said explicitly: “We are well positioned to wait.”

Trump, meanwhile, is having none of it. This morning, he lit up Truth Social with his usual fire and fury, calling Powell’s report “a complete mess” and saying “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!” (His term ends next year—but the White House, via Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, has already announced they’ll begin interviewing successors this fall.)

The tone at the top is chaos. And it’s bleeding into everything—pricing, investor confidence, and Fed independence.

The Fed’s Bind

Powell laid out the challenge clearly: stagflation risk is real. Tariffs are pushing prices up and threatening jobs. The Fed has very little room to maneuver. Cut rates too soon, and inflation takes off. Hold steady, and unemployment ticks higher.

This is the kind of no-win policy environment that freezes capital and sidelines decision-makers.

We’re seeing that firsthand in real estate. Deals that made sense two months ago no longer pencil. Pricing is stalling out as buyers and sellers try to re-anchor expectations. And the tariff overhang—especially on construction materials—continues to reshape development timelines and budgets.

California Sues. Japan Stalls. Business Holds Its Breath.

On the policy front, California has now filed suit to block Trump’s tariffs, calling the trade war an illegal overreach that’s caused “immediate and irreparable harm.” Meanwhile, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is reportedly opting for quiet lobbying over public litigation.

Trump, for his part, is claiming “big progress” in trade negotiations with Japan. But Japanese officials have offered a more tempered read—highlighting just how far apart perceptions are from policy reality.

Meanwhile, in Tech: DeepSeek, Nvidia, and the Chip Wars

While real estate watches interest rates and supply chains, the tech sector is in its own storm. Chinese AI firm DeepSeek is now under congressional investigation over its possible access to restricted Nvidia chips. Nvidia’s CEO, Jensen Huang, is currently in China, navigating a political and regulatory minefield.

There’s concern that DeepSeek may have acquired more advanced chips than previously thought—possibly through third countries or backchannel deals. And if you’re wondering what any of this has to do with CRE—just ask the data center investors watching chip flows as closely as interest rates.

The takeaway: when trade policy gets weaponized, no asset class is isolated.

What I’m Hearing from Investors

Conversations with our partners and peers have followed a consistent theme lately: uncertainty is starting to paralyze decision-making. Whether it’s suppliers being reshuffled, capital budgets being revised, or construction timelines being extended—people are moving more slowly. Risk premiums are being recalculated in real time.

That’s not to say deals aren’t getting done. But the bar is higher. Underwriting assumptions are more conservative. And everyone’s looking for some signal—any signal—that the volatility will settle long enough to make a call with confidence.

What About You?

If you’re in the middle of a project, making strategic pivots, or just trying to navigate this policy-heavy, Fed-sensitive moment, I’d love to hear from you.

• Have you adjusted your supplier strategy?

• Paused or delayed investments?

• Shifted to U.S.-based manufacturing or materials sourcing?

• Or have the tariffs helped create new opportunities for your business?

We’re staying close to the fundamentals—but we’re also staying flexible. Because in a moment like this, clarity isn’t coming from the top. It has to come from our own thinking.

More soon.