Good morning. If you thought the trade war talk was just political theater, this week’s market turbulence is your wake-up call.
Donald Trump is back in the White House, and so are his tariffs—but this time, they’re landing with real force. The new policy sets a 10% global minimum tariff, jumping to 15% or higher for countries running large trade surpluses with the U.S. Canada, a long-time trade partner, is suddenly staring down a 35% hit—though USMCA goods are exempt. Switzerland, known more for watches than trade wars, just got slammed with a 39% levy. That’s not posturing. That’s policy.
Markets Are Reacting—Hard
We’re now six days into a global selloff—the longest losing streak in nearly two years. Swiss stocks are feeling the heat. Watches of Switzerland slid fast in London trading. If not for a public holiday, we’d probably be seeing red across Richemont and Swatch as well. Pharma giants Novartis and Roche aren’t immune either. Their exports rely on stable rules—and stability just left the building.
As a developer and investor, I’ve learned to read market volatility like wind on a job site. It doesn’t always mean a storm is coming, but it always means something’s shifting. And right now, global capital is repositioning. What’s happening in Geneva will show up in Dallas and Detroit, because volatility doesn’t respect borders—it compounds across systems.
A Trade Policy Held Together by Duct Tape
Here’s the kicker: even with all the tariff headlines, the administration has quietly exempted over $1 trillion in imports. No public framework, no application process, just opaque carve-outs that have handed billions in relief to certain firms.
That kind of unpredictability is deadly for long-cycle businesses like real estate development. When you’re pricing materials, locking in contracts, or forecasting yield for a 36-month project, you need rules you can model. Right now, it feels more like a free-for-all.
Did Apple Benefit?
One of the stranger side narratives this week was Apple’s blowout quarter, with iPhone sales surging. Some analysts believe the company’s performance was, at least in part, buoyed by tariff loopholes. If true, it underscores what a selectively-enforced trade regime can do: distort outcomes, reward insiders, and leave everyone else guessing.
Why This Matters for Real Estate
The cost of capital and the cost of materials are the twin pillars every project rests on. When one of them becomes unmoored by global policy shifts, developers get cautious. Lenders start tightening their models. Equity becomes more expensive.
This isn’t just a story about trade—it’s a story about uncertainty. And if you’re in the business of building anything in this economy, that matters.
THE BOTTOM LINE:
Trump’s tariff playbook is back in full force, but the execution is anything but orderly. Expect volatility. Expect uneven outcomes. And expect real estate to feel it—through capital markets, supply chains, and investor sentiment.
We’re not in a policy cycle anymore. We’re in a pricing one. And the developers who navigate it best won’t just be good builders—they’ll be great readers of macro signals.