The U.S.-China trade saga is starting to feel less like strategy and more like a game of telephone—and the markets are trying to make sense of the noise.

This morning brought fresh confusion: Beijing flatly denied President Trump’s claim that Chinese leader Xi Jinping had called him to discuss the ongoing tariff battle. Trump had told Time last week that conversations were happening and that talks were progressing. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a key figure in the negotiations, didn’t help clarify things either—telling ABC’s This Week that he wasn’t even aware if the two leaders had spoken.

Who to believe? At this point, companies are tuning out the chatter and focusing their attention where it matters: Wall Street and Washington.

Corporate America is using earnings calls to sound the alarm. Business leaders are warning, loud and clear, that tariffs are starting to bite—and they’re hoping the message makes its way back to the White House before more damage is done.

Meanwhile, Trump is pushing back on the idea that bond market jitters influenced his decision to pause new tariffs earlier this month. “The bond market was getting the yips, but I wasn’t,” he told Time.

Regardless of spin, the fallout is real.

• Cargo shipments between the U.S. and China have plummeted.

• Temu, the Chinese retailing app wildly popular with U.S. shoppers, has been forced to jack up prices thanks to new tariffs, according to Bloomberg.

• Economists are warning that renewed tariffs could reignite inflation and drag on growth.

• Retailers are starting to whisper about potential empty shelves heading into the second half of the year.

In short: the trade war is creeping back into the macro story, and investors are paying attention.

Why This Week Matters

This is a massive week for data and earnings. And the stakes couldn’t be higher.

Here’s what’s on deck:

• Wednesday: Personal Consumption Expenditures (the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge) and first-quarter GDP numbers drop. With recession fears back on the rise, these numbers will set the tone.

• Friday: Jobs Day. Some economists are bracing for signs that tariffs are already hitting hiring, particularly in manufacturing and trade-heavy sectors.

• Big Tech Earnings: Microsoft and Meta report Wednesday. Apple and Amazon follow on Thursday. These earnings could either fuel another rally or add fuel to the fire if results disappoint.

For the past two years, Big Tech earnings have been the unsung hero behind many of the market’s biggest rebounds. Last week, Alphabet and Tesla gave stocks a boost. The question now: can the Magnificent 7 keep carrying the weight—or will trade tensions finally break the momentum?

What It Means for Real Estate and Investment Strategy

If tariffs reaccelerate inflation or trigger broader economic weakness, expect:

• Higher construction costs from more expensive imports

• Tightening consumer spending, hitting retail tenants and demand for new commercial space

• Increased uncertainty around lending and development, particularly if rates stay higher for longer

Stay sharp. Stay liquid. And stay tuned.

When the political noise gets louder, fundamentals matter even more.