Markets feel… slightly less chaotic today. Stocks overseas are mostly up, the dollar’s showing some signs of life, and traders seem to be taking a breath. But don’t mistake calm for clarity—because if you’re a real estate investor, developer, or anyone making decisions with capital on the line, the fog hasn’t lifted. Not even close.

President Trump’s trade war isn’t over. If anything, it’s morphing. One minute there’s an exemption for auto parts (because apparently “they need a little more time”), and the next minute we’re back to tariffs on chips and pharma. Yesterday was textbook: a little give, a little take, and a whole lot of whiplash.

The fallout’s already real.

Beijing just ordered Chinese airlines to pause new Boeing deliveries. Investors are dumping U.S. stocks at record levels. And global capital—especially the patient, long-term kind—is watching from the sidelines. I’ve heard it on calls this week. People are nervous.

David Solomon at Goldman didn’t even say the word “tariffs” on his earnings call—but he did say recession odds are climbing. Meanwhile, LVMH is watching even its luxury buyers tighten their grip. And Raphael Bostic from the Atlanta Fed basically said what we’re all feeling: companies are in a holding pattern. The rules keep changing, and no one wants to make a move without knowing the cost.

So what does this mean for us?

Real estate isn’t immune to this kind of policy chaos. It’s built on confidence, stability, and forecasts that actually mean something. When the White House shifts messaging every few days, it becomes harder to underwrite, to raise capital, and to make decisions about supply chains, labor, materials, and pricing.

We’ve seen what volatility does. Projects pause. Hiring freezes. Material orders get delayed. Capital partners hedge. And the further this goes, the more everyone waits for the next shoe to drop.

Even the dollar’s acting weird. Normally a safe haven during global uncertainty, it’s off nearly 8% since January. And while Treasury yields are rising, it’s unclear whether that’s a vote of no confidence or just more noise from technical trading.

So where’s this all going?

Depends who you ask. The White House says everything’s fine. Treasury’s pushing a “strong dollar” narrative, even as President Trump keeps complaining about exports. They’re saying there’s no sign foreign countries are pulling back from U.S. debt. But the numbers tell a more complicated story—and most real estate professionals I know are planning cautiously.

We’re in a reset moment.

If you’re a builder, investor, or operator—how are you adjusting? Are you slowing down? Repricing? Reshoring? Negotiating harder with suppliers or putting plans on ice?

I’d love to hear what you’re seeing on the ground. Drop me a note.

Because this isn’t just about headlines or tariffs or Treasury yields. It’s about how confidence—both financial and operational—is shifting. And in our business, confidence is everything.