| June 24, 2025

After years of hype, delays, and endless speculation, Tesla’s long-awaited robotaxi officially launched yesterday in Austin. And while it was a tightly controlled debut, the fact that the rollout didn’t implode—or even stumble—was enough to push Tesla shares up 8% by the close.

Make no mistake: this launch matters. Tesla has been grappling with declining demand for its core vehicle lineup, and Elon Musk has made it clear that the future of the company hinges on autonomy. This isn’t just a side project; it’s the bet.

So, was this some sweeping stress test under real-world conditions? Not even close. The robotaxis operated in a well-mapped part of Austin, had safety monitors in the passenger seat, and remote operators on standby. They run from 6 a.m. to midnight, in good weather only, and the first riders were mostly handpicked Tesla superfans. In other words, it was very much a version 1.0 rollout.

But I rode in one—and I’ll be honest, it worked better than I expected.

I took a couple of rides in different parts of the approved zone, and what stood out wasn’t the novelty. It was the confidence. The vehicle made smooth, human-like decisions and adjusted naturally to unexpected events. It wasn’t perfect—but it felt more polished than anything I’ve seen in the autonomous space to date.

I walked away believing this really could be the foundation of Tesla’s next act. In my view, if Tesla can scale this even semi-successfully, the impact on the company’s long-term valuation could be enormous. I wouldn’t throw out a $1 trillion figure lightly, but I do think we’re witnessing the beginning of a meaningful new revenue vertical—one that could eventually rival, or even eclipse, Tesla’s vehicle sales business.

The Bigger Picture

As Elon put it during Tesla’s last earnings call: “The future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomous cars and large-scale and large-volume, vast numbers of autonomous humanoid robots.”

Whether or not you buy the humanoid robot pitch, the robotaxi is real. And now, it’s live.

This wasn’t a moonshot. It was a quiet, cautious first step. A step in the right direction and for Tesla bulls, that’s more than enough to get excited about.